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September 5, 2008
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Realty Viewpoint: Good News Cautiously Follows Rocky Week

Rocked by four dollar per gallon gas, rising unemployment to 5.5 percent and a steep stock market decline, the nation is ready for some good news, and it just might come from the housing sector.

The National Association of Realtors April Pending Home Sales Index stopped its nearly three-month slide, and rose 6.3 percent to a reading of 88.2. That's still well off the 101.5 reading in April 2006, but significantly better than the March 2008 index of 83.

The rise in pending home sales, which is a forward-looking index, tracks the number of pending home sales, determined by purchase contracts signed. A major reason why sales are improving is that prices are better, driven largely by bank foreclosures. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that first-quarter delinquency rates jumped 6.35 percent from 5.82 percent in Q4 '07. Delinquency rates are the highest since 1979, encouraging bankers to make more deals, particularly in areas with double-digit price declines.

According to a different NAR index, housing affordability has improved dramatically as home prices have dropped 8.4 percent in 2008. More buyers turn to conforming loans, and conforming jumbo loans which are slightly easier to obtain.

Other factors improving the market are better rates on jumbo loans. And, more buyers are turning to conforming loans. In April, there were over 9,000 (9,146) conforming loan applications per work day, a huge increase over just under 8,000 (7,957) per day in March.

Buyers are looking for deals while prices are lower, credit standards are improving, and interest rates are still low. They may realize that this unique window of prices rolled back to 2004, 20-year high inventories and suppressed mortgage interest rates won't last.

Interest rates are certain to rise, as continuing inflation worries impact lending rates. The NAR expects mortgage interest rates to rise to 6.3 percent for a 30-year, fixed rate for qualified buyers.

Home sellers won't feel like partying quite yet. Lender foreclosure fire-sales are causing home prices to remain low, and many buyers are still waiting for even lower prices as foreclosures continue to flood the market.

The good news is that some bargain homes are finally moving through the system. Pent-up demand may keep the momentum going.

Published: June 10, 2008

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.




Blanche Evans is the award-winning senior editor of Realty Times, the Internet's leading independent real estate news service. She is featured daily on the Realty Times Video Network in the "Realty Viewpoint" segment.

Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, and has been twice recognized as a "notable." In 2005, she was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR" by Delahaye-Bacon's.

Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68.


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In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.

     

Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans.


Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR

"The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors

Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007

That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation
2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase
2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2

Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here.

To contact Blanche, email her at .

For more articles by Blanche, click here.







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