When it comes to selecting a new neighborhood, the validity of one's instinct cannot be ignored. Consider, for example, that new apartment complex you've been eyeing. Construction has just been completed, the units are brand-spanking new with fresh paint and carpeting, and the rent can't be beat. In fact, the complex's management company is running a special: You'll receive a free washer and dryer with the signature of a 12-month lease. A great deal, right? Well, two scenarios may be true. The first is that the complex is brand new and is running a fantastic special to lure prospective renters in a competitive market. The other and less fortunate scenario is that the company is well aware that this new complex, while very attractive, sits along a not-so-safe thoroughfare. The fact of the matter is that prospective renters are coming to the complex and liking what they see until the second after they leave the premises. So they opt to live somewhere else.

Telling the leasing agent you'll "think about it," you exit the gates of the complex out onto the busy street. That's when you survey the rest of the area: shabby, poorly maintained complexes line the road. Local businesses don't appear to be of the caliber with which you'd like to be neighbors. Litter lines the side of the road, and you spot a few interesting characters who seem to be loitering about the area. Your instincts tell you that while the complex would probably be safe, you'd feel uneasy every time you exited those gates - especially after dark.

While first impressions should certainly be taken seriously, you can gather more tangible information on your own to settle the question of how safe your prospective neighborhood will be for yourself and your family. How do you tell beyond a quick visual survey whether or not your prospective neighborhood is a good choice?

First of all, if you're buying a home, your Realtor can do some legwork for you, running "comps" to determine the selling history of other homes in the area. You can find out if property values have risen or if they've been steadily declining in recent years. That information, of course, is a strong indicator of how smart this potential investment would be for you. And while we're on the subject of buying, neighborhoods with a greater percentage of buyers versus owners are often considered more stable and thus, more desirable. Of course, in major cities like New York, Washington, D.C., and San Francisco, the cost of living is so high that renters typically outnumber buyers, so this notion isn't always true.

Consider this: If a neighborhood was on the decline, would businesses be flocking to the area as start-ups or relocations? Would upscale retail outlets be opening? Would cultural opportunities abound? Not only do you want to find out about the commercial development in progress, if any; you also want to see how well those retailers have kept up their appearances - whether with landscaping or merely presenting a neat exterior and interior. How many services are available to the locals, including grocery stores, bookstores, clothing stores, pharmacies and other conveniences? The presence of such businesses is evidence of an overall high quality of life. If residents have to drive elsewhere for basic necessities (such as groceries), you may want to question why. It goes without saying that in many cases, a city offering its residents an abundance of services indicates a stable city with a strong sense of community.

You'll also want to find out what kind of projects are in the works in your prospective neighborhood, whether new businesses, retailers, entertainment offerings, restaurants, cultural and recreational venues, and of course, housing. What kind of public transportation system does the city maintain? Is the city growing to the extent that an expansion of its public transportation system is in the works? If so, that's another positive sign. A thriving, safe and expanding transportation system means that if you buy in the neighborhood, your property values are likely to increase.

Your Realtor can help you obtain information about local schools, and this data can be extremely telling. If children in your prospective neighborhood don't attend local schools, that's a red flag you shouldn't ignore. If local schools are bursting at the seams and plans for more schools are in the works, that's a sign that your property values could increase in the future due to the high quality of the area's public school system.

Taking into consideration all of these indicators will help you make the most informed choice possible about whether a neighborhood is the right choice for you and your family. And even if the results of the above-described tests prove favorable, never forget to listen to your instincts. If you're still questioning the area, that gnawing doubt is probably there for a good reason, and you may in fact need to continue your home search.

Published: September 7, 2000

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